The Japanese find vast deposits of Rare Earths in the Pacific

With China enjoying a near monopoly over Rare Earths' production, news of alternative sources are very welcome.

The deposits we located following a survey by a team from the University of Tokyo. The Rare Earths are in the bottom of the Pacific, in international waters east and west of Hawaii, and east of French Polynesia, at depths of 3,500 to 6,000 metres.

However finding new reserves means nothing if their recovery costs are not competitive, as vast other sources exist on shore that are not being exploited (because both costs and environmental issues). Technology for recovery of such deposits is in its early stages, so cost are bound to be non-competitive with the prices offer by the People's Republic.

Anyway in a crisis situation, where like last year, China imposed a short lived embargo on Japan, alternative sources may be the only sources, so there is on more backstop solution.

Furthermore the scale of the discovery may be a game changer in terms of physical scarcity considerations: the University of Tokyo estimates these deposits to contain 80 to 100 billion tonnes of Rare Earths, while current viable reserves are about 110 billion tonnes (USGS). Nevertheless one major issue is still unclear: exactly which elements were found.

As time progresses we'll see how important this discovery will be, but as usual in Economics, the "crisis" will probably solve itself. Prices are rising, and less competitive mines will be competitive again entering the positive rents area. Molycorp is already restarting operations at the Mountain Pass mine in California, certainly others will follow. No physical scarcity is in sight!

table of rare earth elements

See this older post for more on rare earths.

Rare Earths - closing the tap!

China produces 97% of the rare earth elements, a near global monopoly. These elements are used in batteries for hybrid cars, mobile phones, superconductors, lightweight magnets, wind turbines, radar systems, sophisticated lenses, military hardware and other high-tech and green technology products. As such products become a greater share of people's lives in both the developing and emerging world, the importance of these metals will continue to rise.


It wasn't always the case, see graph, but cost advantages on the Chinese side led to the closing of mines elsewhere, specially in the US where in addition to this environmental infractions led to the closure of Mountain Pass mine, California, the largest deposit of rare earth metals outside of China. 

Rare Earth production - historical data (1000s tonnes)

Deng Xiaoping once remarked that the Mideast had oil, but the PRC had rare earths. 


During the last 3 years China has gradually reduced the amount of Rare Earths it allows its companies to export.


The export quota for 2009 is 12% lower than for 2008 will be (57,000 tonnes... already the equivalent of a single cargo vessel). For 2010 those in the know expect cuts as large as 30%.


These cuts have the double effect of strangling hi-tech industries outside the People's Republic (making many in the Western defense sector nervous) and forcing hi-tech companies to relocate manufacturing to China, where they can easily procure such raw materials. 


Still, They may be called rare earth elements, but they’re not all that rare. They are more abundant then gold or silver. The 'rare' adjective appears results from the fact that they rarely show up in concentrated form in a mineral or deposit.

More significantly: reserves are not concentrated in China either (see chart, data from the USGS), so with price competitive extracting technologies and adequate environmental procedures, the dependence on China can be broken. Furthermore, if the prices are right, reserves are bound to grow as exploration becomes justified. It may also be worth to think a bit out of the box and look at economically viable way of exploring underwater deposits of rare earths.

Rare Earth reserves

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Technical note: There are 17 rare earths that belong to the lanthanide family of elements in the periodic table, beginning with lanthanum (atomic no. 57) and ending with lutetium (atomic no. 71). Scandium (atomic no. 21) and yttrium (atomic no. 39) are also grouped with the lanthanide family because of their similar properties. There are 2 categories of rare earth elements - light rare earths and heavy rare earths - based on their atomic weights and location in the periodic table.

• Light Rare Earths: Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Promethium and Samarium (atomic nos. 57-62)
• Heavy Rare Earths: Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Lutetium (atomic nos. 63-71)