Showing posts with label portugal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label portugal. Show all posts

Thursday, 1 March 2012

Economics researchers find a miracle cure for Southern Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis

Without the option of a currency devaluation, there are simple fiscal alternatives to exchange-rate devaluation that can address southern Europe’s short-term competitiveness problems - this is the argument put forward by Gita Gopinath, Emmanuel Farhi and Oleg Itskhoki.

These economists, although from traditionally 'saltwater schools' stay clear of the routine arguments for stimulus or for austerity, instead they defend that:
"There is a remarkably simple alternative that does not require southern Europe’s troubled economies to abandon the euro and devalue their exchange rates. It involves increasing the value-added tax while cutting payroll taxes. Our recent research demonstrates that such a “fiscal devaluation” has very similar effects on the economy in terms of its impact on GDP, consumption, employment, and inflation.
A currency devaluation works by making imports more costly and exports cheaper. A VAT/payroll-tax swap would do exactly the same thing. An increase in VAT raises the price of imported goods, as foreign firms face a higher tax. To ensure that domestic firms do not have an incentive to raise prices, an increase in VAT needs to be accompanied by a cut in payroll taxes.
Moreover, since exports are exempt from VAT, the price of domestic exports will fall. The desired competitiveness effects of exchange-rate devaluation can thus be had while staying in the euro."
Should Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain hire the Harvard / Princeton academics and dump the "Troika"?

It sounds that this way you can actually cook Huevos rotos without breaking the eggs. At first glance this theory seems to hold water only partly, as it would require massive cuts in payroll taxes to make export costs before VAT fall. A sector analysis will easily identify the possible areas of benefit. Nevertheless it looks obvious that service companies are the ones with the highest potential cost reductions... and errrr.... these in general sell to the domestic market, so any benefits here would be indirect, being eventually harvested downstream in the production chain.

German Euro vs South European Euros - some Euros are more equal than others... can a fiscal devaluation bring competitiveness to Southern Europe while keeping the Euro-zone intact?



Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Portuguese Public TV licks the boots of corrupt and blood stained Angolan kleptocrats

Fatima Campos Ferreira and some Angolan "rich clowns" in leopard chairs - Portuguese Public TV (RTP 1)  live from Luanda - Sana Hotel

Pedro Rosa Mendes' chronicle about about a Portuguese public TV (RTP 1) show licking the boots of the corrupt and blood stained Angolan kleptocrats cost him his job with the same company.

The show illustrates how Angolan low-lives are willing to do anything to buy respectability, and worst, how the current Portuguese business pack and politicians are willing to abdicate dignity.

Shame on them all, the dignity of a proud European Colonial nation cannot be given up by such worms!

The full text is included below (first in Portuguese, the Google translation is included after the original).

Transcription of the chronicle "Este Tempo" (This Time), broadcast on RDP Antena 1 on January 18th: 
“Em directo de Luanda, a RTP serviu nesta segunda-feira aos portugueses e ao mundo – eu vi aqui em Paris – uma emissão a que chamou ‘Reencontro’ e na qual desfilaram, durante duas horas, responsáveis políticos, empresários e comentadores de Portugal  e de Angola, entre alguns palhaços ricos e figuras grotescas do folclore local.
O serviço público de televisão tem estômago para muito, alguns dirão para tudo, mas o Reencontro a que assistimos desta vez foi um dos mais nauseantes e grosseiros exercícios de propaganda e mistificação a que alguma vez assisti. Há até propaganda comestível, quando feita com inteligência, mas nem sequer essa bitola foi conseguida, foi permitida, à emissão. A nossa televisão, a televisão paga por todos e que, de certo modo, é um pouco de cada um de nós, afectiva mas também politicamente,  foi a Luanda socializar com os apparatchik do regime, nos quais deveríamos reencontrar uma Angola irmã, uma Angola feliz, uma Angola nova.
Aconteceu o contrário. Reencontrei nesta emissão a falta de vergonha de uma elite que sabe o poder que tem e o exibe em cada palavra que diz. Não no conteúdo, mas no tom, seguro, simpático, veladamente sobranceiro. Aquela gente –  as divas, os engravatados, os socialites – são. ao mesmo tempo, a couraça e as lantejoulas de uma clique produzida pela história recente de um país que combinou uma guerra de 30 anos e uma riqueza concentrada, basicamente, no petróleo.
Oleocracia, chamou-lhe a socióloga francesa Christine Messiant, falecida faz agora anos, e que identificou como ninguém a natureza do poder de José Eduardo dos Santos, do MPLA, da Grande Família e das suas clientelas. Em poucas linhas, a clique angolana, em torno do Presidente, privatizou o Estado, numa teia de clientes da ‘economia política’ angolana e num aparelho que controla, por um lado, a segurança e o uso da força, e, por outro, as contas vitais da República, como a do petróleo, dos diamantes, do Banco Nacional e do Tesouro.
Os generais e barões da economia política fizeram ganhos astronómicos nas comissões dos contratos de armamento, do petróleo, da manutenção militar, por aí fora, e depois usaram esses recursos  em todos os negócios sensíveis, estratrégicos – as empresas de segurança, as companhias de aviação, os sectores das empresas públicas colocados em leasing, as companhias ligadas às forças armadas e à polícia. Um lucro incalculável e, o melhor, legal!
Como bem explicou Christine Messiant, o controlo da economia pelo topo do poder político (juntando as altas patentes e o politburo informal do Partido) usou e geriu a concorrência internacional, beneficiando a conivência, a colaboração ou a assistência de grupos estrangeiros na banca, no sector energético.
É esta, resumindo, a face verdadeira da nova Angola: o novo poder económico é apenas a nova máscara do velho poder político. Uma maquilhagem sofisticada mas óbvia, o bâton da ditadura, parafraseando o grande jornalista Rafael Marques.
Num reencontro digno para ambos os povos e ambas as audiências, teria havido por exemplo Rafael Marques, ou alguém que chamasse à corrupção, corrupção, e não, quase a medo, numa única pergunta, ‘um certo tipo de corrupção’, como fez Fátima Campos Ferreira.
Quem se encontra com a realidade de Angola, encontra a violência brutal nas Lundas diamantíferas, os despojos da guerra civil no tecido social e produtivo, a conflitualidade social latente entre quem tem o mundo e quem não é sequer dono da sua vida, ou a pobreza dos musseques de Luanda, que não desaparecem com o cair do cetim vermelho de um banco como na publicidade que embrulhou a emissão da RTP. Já agora, gostaria de ter reencontrado outros portugueses: os milhares que vão para Angola em fuga de um país sem esperança, o nosso, como se ia nos anos 50, e, como então, enfiados como semi-escravos e semi-reféns à mercê dos seus patrões – agora angolanos – num estaleiro, numa pedreira ou numa fazenda algures fora do alcance das visitas oficiais que chegam a Luanda.
Nesta emissão, enfim, Portugal confirmou que, como antes os nossos colonos, apenas temos a subserviência quando a situação não nos permite o abuso. É no que estamos. ‘Qual o objectivo do investimento angolano no estrangeiro?’, perguntava a jornalista. A resposta foi dada pela própria emissão: respeitabilidade. Luanda apenas compra aquilo que sabe que não tem.”

Pedro Rosa Mendes

English version, using Google translation (may be a bit crude!):


"Live from Luanda, RTP served Monday to the Portuguese and the world - I've seen here in Paris - an show it called 'Reunion', in which for two hours paraded politicians, businessmen and commentators in Portugal and Angola, among some rich clowns and grotesque figures of the local folklore.


Public service television has the stomach for a lot, some will say to all, but the Reunion we saw this time was one of the most gross and nauseating propaganda exercises and mystification that has ever seen. There's even edible advertising, when done with intelligence, but even that gauge was achieved, was allowed to issue. Our television, pay television and for all that, somehow, is a bit of each one of us, emotional but also politically, was socializing with the Luanda regime apparatchik, in which we rediscover a sister Angola, Angola a happy, a new Angola.


The opposite happened. I rediscovered in this show the shamelessness of an elite that knows the power it has and displays it in every word it says. Not in content but in tone, safe, friendly, overlooking covertly. Those people - the divas, the suits, socialites - are. at the same time, the breastplate and spangles click produced by a recent history of a country that has combined a 30-year war and a wealth concentrated primarily in the oil.


Oilcracy, called it the French sociologist Christine Messiant, who died years ago now, and that anyone identified as the nature of the power of Jose Eduardo dos Santos, the MPLA, the Great Family and their clienteles. In a few lines, click the Angolan around the President, privatized the state, in a web of clients 'political economy' in Angola and an apparatus that controls the one hand, security and use of force, and secondly, the critical accounts of the Republic, such as oil, diamonds, the National Bank and the Treasury.


The generals and barons of political economy made astronomical gains in commissions from arms deals, oil, maintenance of military out there, and then used these resources in all business sensitive estratrégicos - security companies, the airlines the sectors of public enterprises placed in leasing, companies linked to the armed forces and police. An untold amount of profit and, above all, legal!


As well explained Christine Messiant, control of the economy at the top of political power (and joining the upper echelons and the Party's informal Politburo ) used and managed the international competition, benefiting collusion, collaboration or assistance from foreign banking groups in the sector energy.


This, in short, the true face of the new Angola: the new economic power is just another mask of the old political power. A sophisticated but obvious makeup, the lipstick of the dictatorship, to paraphrase the great journalist Rafael Marques.


A reunion worthy of both peoples and both audiences, there would have been for example Rafael Marques, or someone to call corruption, corruption, and not, almost fear, a single question, 'a certain kind of corruption', as did Fatima Campos Ferreira.


Who meets the reality of Angola, meets the brutal violence in the Lunda diamond, the spoils of the civil war in the social and productive fabric, the latent social conflict between those who have the world and who is not even master of his life, or poverty the slums of Luanda, which do not disappear with the fall of a bank of red satin and wrapped in advertising that the issuance of the RTP. By the way, I have rediscovered other Portuguese: the thousands who go to Angola on the run from a country without hope, ours, as people would go in the 1950s, and since then, stuck as semi-slaves and semi-hostages at the mercy of their employers - now Angola - a construction site, a quarry or on a farm somewhere out of reach of official visitors arriving in Luanda.


In this show, finally, Portugal has confirmed that, as our colonists before, we have only subservience when the situation does not allow the abuse. It's what we are. 'What is the purpose of the Angolan investment abroad?', Asked the journalist. The answer was given by the very issue: respectability. Luanda just buys what it knows it does not have. "

Pedro Rosa Mendes

About Pedro Rosa Mendes:

Pedro Rosa Mendes - Portuguese journalist
Pedro Rosa Mendes is a journalist and fiction writer. He began his journalistic career in Coimbra, Portugal, in 1988 and joined the founders of Público the following year, going on to become the newspaper’s Luanda, Angola, correspondent. 


As a reporter he covered conflicts in Angola, Rwanda, Zaire/DRC, Western Sahara, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Liberia, the Ivory Coast, Afghanistan and the former Yugoslavia, winning Portugal’s Bordalo Prize for Print Journalism in 2000. 


Between 2007 and 2009 he was posted in East Timor as Dili correspondent for the Agência Lusa de Notícias (the official news agency of Portugal), before becoming the agency’s correspondent in Paris, where he currently lives. 


Mendes’s works of fiction include Baía dos Tigres (Bay of Tigers: A Journey Through War-torn Angola), which won the PEN Club Fiction prize; Atlântico (Atlantic); and Lenin Oil, which was a collaboration with illustrator Alain Corbel. His books of reportage include Ilhas de Fogo (Islands of Fire), Madre Cacau–Timor (Mother Cacau–Timor), and Schwarz Licht, Passagen durch Westafrika (Black Light–Journey through Western Africa) with photographs by Wolf Böwig.

RTP logo - Rádio e Televisão de Portugal - Portuguese Public TV and Radio

Monday, 23 January 2012

Debt: Portugal's Minsky Moment?

PORTUGUESE GOVERNMENT BONDS 10YR NOTE PORTUGAL PL (GSPT10YR:IND) - graph source: Bloomberg
Same may think that ECB's 3-year longer term refinancing operation (LTRO) has taken the Euro a step back from the cliff's edge. However in a scenario where sovereign debt borrowing costs have fallen across Europe, Portugal's 10 year bond yields rose steady, to all-time highs, despite the issuance of 2.5 billion euros of short-term treasury bills on January 18th at lower yields.

The country's 10-year yields are now close to 15%. Reuters notes that Five-year credit default swap prices implied the market was pricing in a 66.8% chance of default.

In the Euro crisis time frame, Austerity and Growth seem to be at odds with each-other and the 'confidence fairy' is nowhere to be seen! As Paul Krugman said in 2010, "somehow it has become conventional wisdom that now is the time to slash spending, despite the fact that the world’s major economies remain deeply depressed". For a small, open economy of the periphery, expansionary austerity cannot be expected to work in a period when the few countries with current account surplus and a trade surplus are reducing consumption. By the time the country is globally competitive, it may be too late. In the worst scenario we could be heading for a Heinrich Brüning style deflation.

Has Portugal's Minsky Moment arrived at last?

Sunday, 18 December 2011

Invasion of Goa - 50 years

December 18th 1961, the armed forces of the self described "pacifist" Nehru, attack Portuguese India, the first and last bastion of European civilization in the subcontinent.

Portuguese India - Coat of Arms
Map of Portuguese territories in India
A few lines by the poet M.Daedalus (www.mdaedalus.com), to honour the day:

Goa 1961

A taciturn rain envelops the morning,
Tears drop from the cross of a white basilica,
India wears a Mediterranean nostalgia.

Man-made thunders agitate the palm-trees
The birds ebb in the ungrateful firmament
Afonso de Albuquerque is invoked in Konkani
"Nehru is coming" a soldier shouts
"Bandit, not pundit!" somebody retorts.

Pathetically the radio plays patriotic songs
Gagged by jet aircraft gutting the clouds
Shiva avenges the kingdom of Cambay
Kalashnikovs echo the screams of Bijapur
Salazar flies away in yesterday's newspaper
The Queen of the Orient drowns in the Mandovi.

Elephants loose their composure
Austins and Peugeots lie abandoned on the harbour road
Oranges and panic are spread over the pier
A man in white suit wraps a fist full of earth
Panjim dies for the sake of a life to be invented.

The empire sheds European and Asian blood
Dadra and Nagar Aveli, were the first perfidious blows
Goa, Daman and Diu completed the five wounds.

M.Daedalus

Monday, 20 June 2011

NATO: why should Europe finance America's folie?

Lord Ismay, first Secretary General of NATO, stated the mission of the organization without any ambiguity: “To keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” To this, the post 9/11 history has de facto added "support any American acts of madness across the globe".

Is this something we should spend European tax payer Euros on? Either the original mission or the new extension?


America always calls the wars to be fought; then an acquiescent NATO, waits for orders from the Pentagon, rewritten in Brussels. European forces are a mere foreign legion serving in an American imperial army.
Robert Gates


All this is bad as it is, but last week, Robert Gates, in his final days as US defense secretary, accused in a resentful tone, the European partners in Nato of not pulling their own fair share of the weight. Mr Gates stated that America is unfairly burdened with providing funding for and the muscle behind NATO.


What does Europe need the US for? Bombing civilian targets in Belgrade? Invading sovereign states under false pretenses? Practice torture and extra-judicial killings? Transforming the Muslim world into a nest of fanatics?


Has Europe forgot where the US was when needed? The French learned a lesson from the Suez crisis, but apparently not the Brits! Why do we need an "ally" that finances and trains the terrorists that massacre our civilian populations, as they did in the Portuguese colony of Angola?


We cannot criticize Mr Gates, he thinks he is acting in the best interest of America... as he did when supporting the Taliban. However we must strongly whip our politicians for their silence and inaction.


Any cent spent supporting US military action across the world is a crime against all European citizens.


Or are we in the same pathetic situation of Japan, who still pays the US for its own occupation?


Not only must NATO be consigned to history, and replaced by a European army, but all American troops must be removed from European soil.

A European Army is needed




PS: list of European countries hosting US occupation forces:
Shame you government into making them leave!

  • Denmark (Greenland)
  • Germany (Including nuclear weapons)
  • Greece (Including nuclear weapons)
  • Italy (Including nuclear weapons)
  • United Kingdom (Including nuclear weapons)
  • Spain
  • Norway
  • Sweden
  • Belgium
  • Portugal (mostly Azores)
  • Netherlands (Including nuclear weapons)
  • France 
  • Poland 
  • Serbia (in occupied Kosovo Metochia province)

Monday, 6 December 2010

15% probability of oil in the Portuguese offshore

Despite decades of exploration activity, and some sub-commercial production in the Lusitanian basin, Portugal has yet to discover a commercially viable oil deposit.

However the she search for oil is on again in the Portuguese offshore. This time Petrobas, Petrogal and Partex are the main players.

In a first phase USD$90 millions is being spent in 2 and 3D analysis of the the local formations. A test well is expected to cost USD$20 million. Petrobras estimates the chances of success at 15%, but reveals that their research points to a positive EMV, i.e. either very large reserves or an even larger disappointment.

Sources at the Colorado School of Mines were very skeptical about the conclusions reached by Petrobras and suggested other reasons beyond pure economics may explain the investment at this stage.

Can Portugal be the new Norway?


map of the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone in the Atlantic

Saturday, 20 November 2010

Private Universities in Portugal

At the entrance to Universidade Lusófona (Lisbon) there is a large bronze map highlighting Portugal and the Portuguese colonies, now the so called PALOP's, all joined in the dysfunctional CPLP "community".

It is interesting to see that these highly "qualified" professors cannot tell Britain and Madagascar apart.

Would you hire anyone who has graduated from this so-called university?

The images are self explanatory:




















Hummm.... something moved next to Ireland... and it is not Britain?
(big parties in Dublin by now, I guess...)

Now, what is that island on the South Eastern coast of Africa, just to the left of Mozambique?


These people also run in Portugal the GMAT, GRE and TOEFL tests, used by prospective students to US and British universities....

Makes you feel extra confident...

Sunday, 29 August 2010

Nostalgia

Many a Portuguese person lives in more than one century (usually not even consecutive centuries).
Yet the country is a "fortress of spume"
image of Lisbon from 'El Atlas del Rey Planeta', by Pedro Teixeira, 1634


Map of the Portuguese Colonies - 1970s


Estado Novo Propaganda "Portugal Is Not a Small Country" - map of the Portuguese Empire vs. Europe
Estado Novo Propaganda "Portugal Is Not a Small Country" - map of the Portuguese Empire vs. the USA

Downtown Lisbon - Terreiro do Paço in September 1936 - Luftschiff Zeppelin 129 Hindenburg

Friday, 4 June 2010

Portugal twined with Sonangol


Cartoon from "Inimigo Público". Blood stained, petro-corrupt Angolan dictator Eduardo dos Santos (Zédu) is buying half of Portugal.
"Portugal 'gemina-se' com Sonangol"

Saturday, 14 November 2009

Treaty of Lisbon becomes Law in 2 weeks

Lisbon Treaty signature - Jeronimos monastery cloister

The Czech Republic deposited in Rome on November 2009 its instrument of ratification. The Czech Republic becomes the final member-state of the European Union to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon. It will now become law on December 1st.

Good luck Europe!

After the less than dignified ratification process, we wish that fudged national accounts, subservience to Washington and lack of centralized power will be surmountable obstacles.

Tuesday, 3 February 2009

Feb 3, 1509: the Indian Ocean becomes a Portuguese Lake

Portuguese fort of Diu
We celebrate 500 years of the battle of Diu (Gujarat, India). On February 3rd 1509, a Portuguese fleet under Dom Francisco de Almeida routs a large armada of Ottoman, Gujarati, Mamluk, Kozhikodi, Venitian and Ragusan forces.

This was a game changing event, the Ottomans were contained. For the next 100 years the Indian Ocean would becomes a Portuguese Lake and for 350 longer an European pond. Diu was eventually lost to the Indians in 1961.

World trade was transformed for ever: the old land routes controlled by the Turks and continuing into the Mediterranean became irrelevant, intercontinental sea trade was born, a true revolution in transportation.
Flor de la Mar - Portuguese Carrack - flagship of D. Francisco de Almeida in the battle of Diu
Dom Francisco de Almeida - Viceroy of India

Friday, 13 June 2008

120th anniversary of the birth of Fernando Pessoa

our small homage with one of his poems:



  "Autopsychography"
The poet is an inventor.
He invents so completely
That he succeeds in inventing
That the pain he really feels is pain.
And those who read what he writes
Really feel in the pain they have read,
Not the two which he felt,
But only the one they do not have.
And thus in the wheel ruts
There goes round and round, diverting Reason
That clockwork toy train
Which is called heart.

Translated by F.E.G. Quintanilha

More on Pessoa at MDaedalus.com
portrait of Fernando Pessoa by Almada Negreiros (Orpheu #2 on the desk)

Tuesday, 23 October 2007

Toy for the boys

Jose Socrates on a Lego box - "porque nem todos podemos ser Engenheiros"

After all we can't all be engineers... or can we?
(pun on the strangely obtained civil engineering degree of Portuguese prime-minister Jose Socrates)

Monday, 26 March 2007

Salazar: elected the "Greatest Portuguese of all time"


Portuguese premier Antonio de Oliveira Salazar, close-up - 1960 - photo by Paul Schutzer for Life magazine



Portuguese television viewers have voted 20th century politician and professor of economics and political economy António de Oliveira Salazar as the greatest Portuguese of all time. It was a clear victory, Salazar received over twice the votes of the runner up.

It took Portugal 67 years to acknowledge the obvious, as already in its edition of July 29,1940, Life Magazine described premier Salazar as "By far the world's best dictator, he is the greatest Portuguese since Prince Henry the Navigator".



As early as 1962 Salazar applied for European Community membership for Portugal. A fervorous patriot, he was also a believer in Europe's values, shared mission in the world and in the inevitability of a united future.


Salazar with a signed Mussolini portrait on his desk - Life magazine 1940 - photo by Bernard Hoffman
Salazar receives US President Dwight D. Eisenhower - May 1960 - photo by Ed Clark for Life magazine

Salazar - cover of Time Magazine, July 22, 1946 - capa da revista Time
Salazar with Queen Elizabeth II (1957)
Salazar and the Galician leader of Spain, Francisco Franco
Salazar, the professor - statue in academic dress - replica of a 1937 work by the sculptor Francisco Franco - it used to stand in front of the Salazar high-school, in the capital of the province of Mozambique, Lourenço Marques  
Salazar with president Carmona - Roman / Fascist salute
Salazar looks at the Ocean - Portugal's only constant friend - Forte de Santo António do Estoril - photo by Rosa Casaco

Update (April 5, 2009):
According to a new book by Costa Pimenta the man was even a freemason! He was initiated in 1914 in Coimbra, by the lodge Revolta n.º 336, of the oldest Masonic Obedience in Portugal, the Grande Oriente Lusitano (GOL).
(see "Salazar, o maçon", Costa Pimenta, Bertrand Editora, Lisboa, 2009 - 972251914X, 9789722519144)

Not really a surprise: all the main pillars of the Estado Novo were freemasons. All the presidents of the Republic, all the presidents of the National Assembly, all military commanders, all the attorney generals, all the presidents of the Supreme Court, all the presidents of the Supreme Administrative Court, all the presidents of the Court of Appeal, all District Governors, all police chiefs, all directors of the public televison (RTP)... were Masons.

Salazar, the freemason (Salazar, o maçon) - book by Costa Pimenta, University of Lisbon researcher