Peak Oil - scaremongering again

Aljazeera has jumped on the peak oil bandwagon! Their feature "the scourge of peak oil" is alarmist and lacks economic justification. Dahr Jamail and the chaps in Doha did not do their homework this time, drafting a scaremongering senseless piece.

World oil production - 1970-2010

Many of the arguments proposed have long been discredited by economists and the concept is bogus modelling. The Hubbert curve is a mere Malthusian curiosity. We have reserves for decades and as the prices increase, so will reserves, as new exploration is justified and deposits with higher extraction costs become viable. Scarcity of cheap reserves may slowly rise prices, but brings other reserves to the market. New technology changes both supply and demand and substitution cannot be ignored. Economic exhaustion is not anywhere near, and economic exhaustion will precede physical exhaustion.

Anyway, today's prices already include the best available information about the market, so they will not have exponential growth as prophets of doom try to spread to attract followers.

Marion King Hubbert - geoscientist who introduced the Peak Oil concept

South Sudan: welcome to the world

A bit of Africa that manages to escape the Islamic sphere!
That is worth celebrating!
Not since the liberation of East-Timor from Indonesia have we seen such an event!
Lets home some decent governance will follow...

Best wishes for South-Sudan!

... and don't forget: make it simple for visitors, e.g. visas on arrival at Juba airport would be a good sign!
A few tourists won't harm the economy, or do you intend to live only from oil and food aid?

man holds a Southern Sudan Flag

15% probability of oil in the Portuguese offshore

Despite decades of exploration activity, and some sub-commercial production in the Lusitanian basin, Portugal has yet to discover a commercially viable oil deposit.

However the she search for oil is on again in the Portuguese offshore. This time Petrobas, Petrogal and Partex are the main players.

In a first phase USD$90 millions is being spent in 2 and 3D analysis of the the local formations. A test well is expected to cost USD$20 million. Petrobras estimates the chances of success at 15%, but reveals that their research points to a positive EMV, i.e. either very large reserves or an even larger disappointment.

Sources at the Colorado School of Mines were very skeptical about the conclusions reached by Petrobras and suggested other reasons beyond pure economics may explain the investment at this stage.

Can Portugal be the new Norway?

map of the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone in the Atlantic

Oil below $34

WTI is now below $34/bbl!!
Enjoy while it lasts!!
Drive, fly... splash on your carbon footprint this Christmas!

Oil Derricks - Christmas

Brazil: World's Third-Largest Oil Field

Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil company, announced the discovery of the potential Carioca deepwater oil field, stating that it may hold 33 billion barrels of oil, making it the third-largest oil field ever discovered. Assuming Petrobras meant oil-in-place reserves, recoverable reserves should be about a third of this.


The Carioca area lies in the Atlantic, west of Tupi filed in the fertile Santos basin, off the coast of Sao Paulo state.


“It could be the world’s biggest discovery in the past 30 years, and the world’s third-biggest currently active field,” Haroldo Lima, head of the government’s oil and fuel market regulator, told reporters at an industry event in Rio de Janeiro.


Petrobras also has said previously it sees good prospects for major oil finds in the subsalt areas in the Campos and Espirito Santo basins north of Santos, but it is focusing mainly on Santos at the moment.

Oil at $100

Happy 2008!

Nice new year news: crude oil reaches $100.

Serves us well in the West for engaging in or supporting stupid wars, and moreover for leaving natural resources in the hands of greedy regimes in states that for the most part should never have become independent in the first place!

oil rig fireworks

Bravo Western world!