Evolving World Power Balance: China's first aircraft carrier starts sea trials

Chinese aircraft carrier Shi-Lang - artist's impression - pennant number 83

She was known as Riga when her keel was laid down in Nikolayev (Ukraine SSR) in 1985, to be the second ship in the Admiral Kuznetsov class. She was launched in 1988, and renamed Varyag in 1990, as Riga was in the process of becoming a foreign city. Construction stopped by 1992, with the ship structurally complete but without equipment or weapons.

With the dissolution of the USSR, the Ukraine became the owner, but lacked the money and expertise to proceed. The Varyag rusted for several years and then was stripped. In early 1998, she lacked engines, a rudder, and much of her operating systems.

It was purchased from the Ukraine at auction for US$20 million by Chong Lot Travel Agency, believed to be acting as a proxy for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). At the time Chong Lot stated that the ship would become a floating entertainment center and casino in Macau.

As expected, Macau wasn't to be the final destination, though it would be interesting if the old Portuguese naval center would become an important base for the PLAN. In 2005, the Varyag ended up at a dry dock in Dalian, home to the PLA Dalian Naval Academy. There, China's first batch of carrier aviators began training in 2008, undergoing a four-year course.

The Chinese have been in touch with Russian naval construction firms, and may have purchased plans and technology for equipment installed in the Kuznetsov. Until last year, progress was slow. On June 8, 2011 the chief of China's General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) confirmed that China's first aircraft carrier was under construction. On the morning of August 10 the ship began her first sea trials.

Under the PLAN the carrier will bear the highly symbolic name of Shi Lang (施琅). Shī Láng; 1621-1696) was a Ming-Qing admiral. He was commander-in-chief of the Manchu fleets which destroyed the power of the Zheng family and conquered Formosa (Taiwan) in 1681.

Observers predict that she will call Sanya Naval Base on China's southern Hainan Island her mother port. If that proves true, the carrier will be assigned to the PLA Navy's South China Sea Fleet, likely sailing back and forth from the Persian Gulf to help secure Beijing's crude oil shipping line.

But besides a defensive role in protecting the vital routes for raw materials, a new offensive capability is created, projecting Chinese power. Taiwanese, Indian, Vietnamese, Thai and Australians will have to re-think their regional positions.

But of course it is the US that face the main challenge. In the short term the Chinese carrier is more a symbol for the Chinese than a menace to the US. This does not mean that real menaces do no come in other forms: the Americas should worry about their own carriers vulnerability as more of the Chinese  Dong Feng 21D carrier killer missiles (anti-ship ballistic missile / ASBM) are deployed and as rumors of a tactical naval nuclear missile start to be whispered.

Anyway, it's been some time now since history did not end: the Pacific is no longer an American lake and more is in the pipeline, e.g. in the form of a Chinese designed nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Furthermore Beijing's naval ambitions are now global, no ocean should be considered off-limits and the prospect of Chinese naval bases abroad should be faced seriously.

The years of a single super power are going away fast!

Naval Ensign of the People's Republic of China - the PLAN flag will become an ever more common sight in the world's oceans and ports - 中国人民解放军海军军旗

Dong Feng DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) on parade in Peking - 东风-21中程弹道导弹

UPDATE:

She has been seen at sea: DigitalGlobe, a commercial US satellite company, says the Shi-Lang has been photographed on December 8th off the Chinese coast by one of the company's satellites, image below:

Satellite image of the Chinese aircraft carrier Shi-Lang off the PRC's coast (c) DigitalGlobe

Update, Sept 25, 2012: it's official, the Riga is now in service as the Liaoning (辽宁号航空母舰 - hull number: 16), after the province of the same name. Only the Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark fighters are missing now. The J-15 carrier-based combat plane was adapted from the Sukhoi Su-33.

Shenyang J-15 Flying Shark fighter (歼-15) - prototype in flight - notice the hook for carrier landings

India doubles its Uranium reserves

Uranium ore

India's Atomic Energy Commission disclosed a new uranium discovery in Tummalapalle in Kadapa district, state of Andhra Pradesh, with reserves of 150.000 tonnes effectively doubles India's Uranium reserves.

India's nuclear energy programme is under-supplied and the new source is most welcome to keep it viable and limit its dependence from foreign suppliers. On the nuclear weapons front, India's pursuit of a nuclear triad is also increasing demand: soon the first of its Arihant class of nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarines will be operational, more will follow.

Clearly good news for India, but may yet prove to be a factor in global instability. India first nuclear weapon was designated PNE, for 'peaceful nuclear explosive', such irony may fail to make its neighbours smile.

Pakistan, although lacking indigenous uranium, may feel compelled to compete. With the country on an uncontrolled downward spiral, some in Islamabad may take less than reasonable decisions, and more seriously we are all wondering when will a Pakistani nuclear warhead reach the wrong hands. China too, may see this as a threat, specially in terms of projected power and rivalry in the oceans, though we shouldn't expect any actions from the People's Republic that defy either prudence or intelligence.

INS Arihant - Indian nuclear submarine under construction (based on the Soviet Akula class)

Combating piracy with Drones, not warships

Indian Ocean piracy area off Somalia

source: Google Earth blog

Millions of Euros have been spent in the inglorious mission of "Combined Task Force 150", the fleet based in Djibouti responsible for fighting piracy in Horn of Africa region.

Over and over again the fleet has captured pirates only to free them, allowing for repeated piracy acts to continue. Seldom have pirates been prosecuted with success.

Interested countries have a much more effective and economical way of solving this issue: Drones.

Drones have been used multiple times over Somalia and have to range to cover the area effectively. They also have the cameras and sensors to identify pirates beyond doubt without being detected. (Often pirates just drop their weapons on the water after seeing a naval vessel in the horizon). Furthermore, drones have the perfect weapons to sink with precision the pirates' vessels. Furthermore no risk of collateral damage exists!

The US can launch them from the usual places (the equipments are already in place). France can use bases in Djibouti... China and Russia also have their Unmanned Aerial Vehicles...

Will anyone miss the sunk pirates?

NATO / US, China, Russia - what are you waiting for?

MQ-9 Reaper / Predator drone in flight

Rare Earths - closing the tap!

China produces 97% of the rare earth elements, a near global monopoly. These elements are used in batteries for hybrid cars, mobile phones, superconductors, lightweight magnets, wind turbines, radar systems, sophisticated lenses, military hardware and other high-tech and green technology products. As such products become a greater share of people's lives in both the developing and emerging world, the importance of these metals will continue to rise.


It wasn't always the case, see graph, but cost advantages on the Chinese side led to the closing of mines elsewhere, specially in the US where in addition to this environmental infractions led to the closure of Mountain Pass mine, California, the largest deposit of rare earth metals outside of China. 

Rare Earth production - historical data (1000s tonnes)

Deng Xiaoping once remarked that the Mideast had oil, but the PRC had rare earths. 


During the last 3 years China has gradually reduced the amount of Rare Earths it allows its companies to export.


The export quota for 2009 is 12% lower than for 2008 will be (57,000 tonnes... already the equivalent of a single cargo vessel). For 2010 those in the know expect cuts as large as 30%.


These cuts have the double effect of strangling hi-tech industries outside the People's Republic (making many in the Western defense sector nervous) and forcing hi-tech companies to relocate manufacturing to China, where they can easily procure such raw materials. 


Still, They may be called rare earth elements, but they’re not all that rare. They are more abundant then gold or silver. The 'rare' adjective appears results from the fact that they rarely show up in concentrated form in a mineral or deposit.

More significantly: reserves are not concentrated in China either (see chart, data from the USGS), so with price competitive extracting technologies and adequate environmental procedures, the dependence on China can be broken. Furthermore, if the prices are right, reserves are bound to grow as exploration becomes justified. It may also be worth to think a bit out of the box and look at economically viable way of exploring underwater deposits of rare earths.

Rare Earth reserves

____________________________

Technical note: There are 17 rare earths that belong to the lanthanide family of elements in the periodic table, beginning with lanthanum (atomic no. 57) and ending with lutetium (atomic no. 71). Scandium (atomic no. 21) and yttrium (atomic no. 39) are also grouped with the lanthanide family because of their similar properties. There are 2 categories of rare earth elements - light rare earths and heavy rare earths - based on their atomic weights and location in the periodic table.

• Light Rare Earths: Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Promethium and Samarium (atomic nos. 57-62)
• Heavy Rare Earths: Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Lutetium (atomic nos. 63-71)